March 25th, 2025
The 1st Meeting of the Men's Backyard Debating Society
...went well.
Ten good men came... red wine, red ale, a golden Scotch, and sparkling water were consumed... discussion was had, all participated... AI a topic of note, Medicine past and present, the nature of Certainty... all agreed that men of good will can discuss contentious issues without rancor... but the proposition was not truly tested. Next meet-up must include people with a Weltanschauung at odds with the Original Ten.
March 17th, 2025
Something I'm trying to spark...
...ways to discuss and debate important things without rancor, ad hominem attack, and with open minds... I sent out this invite.
Bob Baggott Here... The Men's Backyard Debating Society Meet-up, Thursday XXXX
Since my dog Junior has heard all my thoughts, opinions and arguments and is tired of them... and my wife finds my barking back at idiots on TV painful... upon consultation with John McAniff and his moderately enthusiastic willingness to join in, we've decided that conversation in the company of civilized men who know a thing or two about things is just the thing called for.. no speakers, no invitations, no RSVPs, no dues, no table centerpieces, no dress code... just a willingness to say what you think about anything, to listen respectfully keeping personal disdain at bay (mostly), to cede the floor and not drone on (my issue... someone often has to remind me, "Bob, this is a conversation, not a lecture")... and to generally be good company with something interesting to share.
I will stock a bar, have charcuterie on hand, and host as inofficiously as I can.
If you show up at my home on Thursday, just come in the front door and head to the back... if it's raining we'll stay inside.
BOBB
March 12th, 2025
Old Bloomberg Messages...
JOSEPH XXX
06:12:34 lol what is your cell?
BOB BAGGOTT
06:13:11 The boundaries of my fears
...August, 2020
A conversation with a regional dealer...
SAMMY XXXX
06:01:27 Bob, is legacy rmbs you, or XXXX?
BOB BAGGOTT
06:11:56 If by legacy you mean pre '08 then it's pretty much neither. FYI, XXXX and I are traders that face the street... we have influence of varying degrees on decisions but we do not have portfolios. XXXX is a PM/Analyst with a focus on RMBS... He will face our counterparties directly if he so chooses but I caution that he will not respond well if he ends up getting posted on "sweet candy" marketing blasts.
SAMMY XXXX
06:13:10 That is some handy information. Really appreciate the intel/education
BOB BAGGOTT
06:13:49 Axiom... the more !!!! attached to a message, the more horrible is the bond
...September, 2020
March 11th, 2025
Old Notebooks have a few little gems in them...
"Meditations from a Monastery"
"Virus, masks, elections, China, Newsom, state of fear
Riots, looting, arson, Fauci, markers of the year."
...written on retreat, November 2020
"Battles are fought by scared men who would rather be someplace else.."
March, 2020
"The Revolution"
"They’ll hang us from a lamp post
If they ever get the power.
It’s a foolish thing to kid yourself.
We wouldn’t last an hour"
...December, 2018
An internal chat regarding a sell of a not great asset at a lousy time to be a seller. The PM thanked me for trying...
11:24:56 I get that you fought for us... knew you would. And sometimes the outcome is pre-ordained. Either way, there would have been only a smile after all was over.
11:25:37 I am compelled to execute the Pavanne with fidelity
11:29:37 Compelled by my acceptance of my duty in trust and my aesthetic insistence upon honor... I fall short of my professions and I am always a sinner, but yet... the star shines as a guide to the wanderer
There are no market outcomes because there is no such thing as a market… there are only the consequences, intended or not, of the ukases of Central Bankers. Behavioral Finance and an empathetic ability to anticipate second and third level input-dependent response are better tools than research. Value, like Truth, is malleable to the collective will.
Short version: Trace destroys liquidity, confuses decision-making, makes everyone subject to the herd, lays the groundwork for tort artists, de-values research investment, and in the personal, spreads a false consciousness that has thinned the ranks of competent professionals at a time when they are most sorely needed. Long version involves meditation upon the metaphysics of markets. But hey, thanks anyway.
been thinking about the metastasizing domination of effective-monopoly information portals... at first they serve to network the participants of long-standing cultural arrangements... very valuable tools. The cost seems minuscule given the benefits. But in the end they devour everything that came before... we are accelerating into the gravity well to the singularity of a monolithic tyranny
Keep the faith baby! Baruch atah Adonai, Eloheinu melech ha-olam. I miss you!
...July, 2020
March 9th, 2025
Serendipity Explains Much...
Only a few weeks after I had given an autobiographical speech titled, "I Didn't Plan Any of This, Or... The Wanderings of a Scots/Irish Hard Case and the Blessings of Being Oppositional, Skeptical, and Drawn to the Interesting" I stumbled upon a book review of Iain McGilchrist's tour de force book, "The Matter with Things", a study of humanity: the human brain, its complexity, its dimensional richness, the adaptations mankind has made to the natural world, and how creation is more than the sum of its parts... anyway, that's what I've gleaned and I've only just begun... it is two volumes, 1,600 pages.
The speech I had given was a narrative of being unwilling to submit to rules, of identifying the main chance and acting upon it with urgency and without looking back, of being satisfied with finding answers within the order of magnitude needed to proceed, without solving to the end and without showing my work, turning away from the categorized to turning to the interesting.
I particularly noted the last 10 years of my working life were amongst quants that distrusted intuition, an allegorical approach to problems, and an oblique reaction to offered nominals. It was difficult to be that guy.
So, I am 150 pages into McGilchrist's book, and I am gob smacked. I had always assumed I was kind of lucky, that I fell into good things, that somehow, I hadn't worked hard enough or earned whatever came my way. His book is a to-the-letter description of my life experience and an explication of true things that I intuitively felt but had no standing, or even words, to explain.
I have more to say about this... I will say now that if you have been in the same losing battle against the triumphalist quantitative view of truth and its source, McGilchrist's book will lift your spirits and stiffen your spine... to get back in the fight.
March 6th, 2025
I have become my Father...
My Father was a small business owner for most of his working life, which meant he was back and forth in the house most days. When my three brothers and I got old enough to be snide, obnoxious pains in the ass, rather than just sniveling punk-ass pains in the ass, we would tease him (make fun of him cruelly, in a manner that we thought was Joe Tough Guy but probably made him smile inside) about his advancing years and his rapidly approaching status as drooling old man. Of course, we weren't paying rent and we were eating free food, but Dad was a master of the needle so we didn't fall far from the tree.
Every time he left the house to attend to something we would count the number of time times he would have to come back inside to get something he forgot. We'd shout out the count as the front door opened... "One... Two..." It never was less than three trips back, but I remember Eight as being the record.
Well, now that's me... back into the house... then standing in the front hall trying to remember what I came back in for... multiple times. The only difference is that my children are much nicer than my brothers and I were. My kids just smile and shake their heads.
I read somewhere that transitions from one room to the next, one physical surrounding quickly changing to another, will blank the memory of just what the hell you got up to get or to do. I now make a habit of raising the intended task to primary consciousness. It's working... Now if only I can stop setting things down in places when I get distracted by something, I won't wander around, like my Father did, muttering "Who took my keys?"
March 3rd, 2025
I know that our AI Quant friends, once stuffed in HS lockers, are exacting revenge with every IPO... but c'mon guys, you can do better than this...
This came in on my timewasting feeds:
"GPT-4.5 vibes: it is really hard to explain what the difference is, but it just feels like the first LLM that you can just talk to and it feels intelligent. It doesn't slide into the 'teaching mode' or listing bullet points or some other AI slop behaviour. It is natural and effortlessly funny, it does not feel like it was RLHF'd to death, like all other models. It is the only model I've genuinely had 'laugh out loud' moments in a single conversation."
I couldn't help myself... I commented:
"Yeah, it's a real sidesplitter. I'm the first one to admit I have no friends, but I have enough self-respect to pay real people to talk to me instead of sucking up to software."
March 2nd, 2025
Sometimes you have to think Obliquely...
There are those who are gravely fearful of President Trump's efforts to exert executive control over the vast apparatus of the US Federal Government. They are afraid that were the President able to establish policy and enforce that policy across all Agencies, Commissions, Offices that touch the lives of every American, he would wield dictatorial power.
There are those that have been subject to the dictates of the Agencies, Commissions, Offices of the Federal Government and believe them to be capricious and without legal founding, unanswerable to any elected authority. They are cheering on President Trump in his efforts to plumb and make public the almost infinite bureaucratically derived rules, spending priorities, accounting practices, ad infinitum, that have no clear legal provenance or accountability,
Both these broadly defined worldviews are correct... and incorrect.
Those that fear the President's efforts should fear them. Not because the President is Donald Trump, but because NO US President should be able to wield the awesome executive power that would accrue to the office, if the Federal Government were efficient, responsive, and effective. In its current form it can be sidestepped, corrupted to look away, manipulated by location shopping, baffled by complication, delayed by obfuscation. God protect the Republic if the wrong person should ever wield the full power of the state under the Executive Authority clearly afforded under the Constitution.
Those that cheer the President's efforts should cheer them. Not because the President is Donald Trump, but because the apparatus of the state has assumed a power never contemplated and never founded through any consent of the governed. NO bureaucratic edifice should rule, other than by faithful application of law and under the authority of the elected executive. At a minimum, the bureaucratic imperative means ever-growing self-declared mandates, ever-growing spending, ever-growing ways to say no to any activity, and ever-growing vectors of corruption stemming from obscuring complication, lack of oversight, and the sheer size of the beast.
What should truly be the consensus is that the power of the State has become a threat to the liberty of all, and the cost of state is beyond the nation's ability to bear. $37 Trillion in official debt and $Trillions more off the books is testimony that should arouse a cry of Enough!
February 28th, 2025
An observation...
When I am thinking, trying to come up with ideas, imagining what things might look like, who in my past and present I like, who I want to get back in touch with... when an idea for a poem or an essay bubbles up... when I write a poem, commit words to paper... I use a fountain pen... with a nib, messy ink well... lately I have been using card stock on a clipboard, but in the past, I've filled up dozens of notebooks, many at the same time, none of the entries chronological in any notebook in any order. I've been going through them... they go back 20 years... some good stuff. It's like finding a $20 in the jacket you haven't worn in five years.
The tactile feedback of a pen scratching across rough card stock... the brachiate line of ink that seeps from the word written down.... the ability to strike/thru edit on the fly, the doodles that mark a pause for thought... it's an intimate and immediate connection between creating and the created.
But when I must write something for others, something that must be linear, grammatical, logical.... I use a keyboard and Word. I have tried to write long form by hand, but I indiscriminately run on... I change tenses and person, I repeat myself repeatedly, recursively, and over and over. The formatted blank Word page tells me I am working on writerly stuff... "sit up straight, don't lose focus, only two paragraphs to go."
I am certain that, although both processes seem to be the same - writing - they are not the same. They are two distinct activities: marking thoughts to be contemplated, and using the written word to communicate with others.
